Mumbai Cloudburst: Fundas

Read http://www.flonnet.com/fl2217/stories/20050826005101200.htm.

Dr Ramachandran (affectionately called Bajji by friends) once again lends solid perspective on the Mumbai cloudburst in late July.

In the current issue of Frontline (Volume 22 - Issue 17, Aug 13 - 26, 2005), he gives a lucid explaination of why the intensity of the rain that lashed Mumbai could not have been predicted accurately.

Taking a decision based on probability is common, but implicit, in business as well as science. The historical chance of such a cloudburst over Mumbai was just 0.01. The 'preparedness' of civil systems, and even use of weather forecasting terminology, reflect that. The civil machinery in Chirapunji would not (should not) have been surprised by this.

But there are problems. Ramachandran points to the India Meteorological Department (not Indian, a common mistake), that has been functioning like a chicken without a head for many months now. He also cites lack of anticipation on part of weathermen, given conditions prevailing over the western ghats at that time.

Now, add to this the perennial apathy of civil machinery in Mumbai.

Suppose, it was Hyderabad...

One wonders how Hyderabad would have coped with such a cloudburst. August 2000 was the closest we came to such a situtation. Following heavy overnight rains, all lakes in Hyderbad were overflowing, including the 'gentle' Hussain Sagar. We were at Bowenpally at that time. The Hasmathpet Lake in the undulating Bowenpally region (Secunderabad) burst its banks and flooded colonies that were downhill. Our house was flooded too. Thankfully, it was on a raised foundation, and we could wade out in thigh deep water. Other creatures were happy about our house -- frogs, squirrels, lizards had found an island. A lot of cleaning up that week.

Guess Hyderabad's natural drainage maybe better off since it is on the Deccan Plateau. The rocky terrain may offer run-off channels into dry, water-deficient regions surrounding the city. North Mumbai was unfortunate to be caught between the hills to the northeast and the sea, in high tide, to the west. Add to this unauthorized and unplanned concrete jungles that dot the Mumbai beach-heads, blocking all natural streams.

[p.s: For those really keen on how satellite weather photography, there a couple of pictures from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite.]

School Tragedy

It has happened once again. A 4-year old kid was killed by a school van and four others badly injured. See http://www.deccan.com/home/homedetails.asp#4-yr-old%20crushed%20to%20death.

The Deccan Chronicle carries a moving picture of a traumatised kid who saw his friend killed.

The adminstrators of this "Great City" have always shown more generosity with land when it comes to garish marriage function halls (wedding gardens as they are called) and corporate IT parks. But just look at the state of the schools. Most of them are spilling into the roads. No regulation whatsoever on building design and location. The so-called international schools are well endowed anyway and serve a small section of the soceity.

Bharatiya Vidya Bhavan has its own fleet of buses but their on-campus parking slots are not exactly kid-safe. A lot of BVB kids use private cars and autorickshaws that are not allowed inside the school. Same is the case with DPS in Bowenpally, Secunderabad. Am sure there are other examples.

Sadly St. Ann's School is one of the better know convent schools in Secunderbad. But it too lacks facility inside the campus for school buses to park and children to safely board or alight. In fact, am not sure if St Anns has its own fleet of school buses even. Which is why parents depend on private transport and autorickshaws to get their children to school and back.

Visit these schools when they are out and you will see a perfect recipe for disaster waiting to happen -- common to see children trying to cross the road on their own, no attendants in sight, haphazardly parked vehicles, over-packed autorickshaws with kids sharing seats even with the driver, school vans vying for road-space to pick up the kids.

But it is in our modern tradition to ignore the needs of children, and old people, anyway. Guess we are living for the present.

Rahul's Lotta Trouble

Ever since he discovered toilet paper last week, Rahul has solemnly sworn never to live in the western world, specifically US. "Cheeee", was his reaction when made the find, thanks to his new US-returned friend next door.

Though Rahul (and the rest of us) belongs to the world of the "chombu", he is only 7 and guess he will grow up to know the relevance of stuff like "appropriate technology", "roughage", and "fibre content".

We can discuss how the use of western style toilet and the humble chombu combine, but we will take that offline. :-)

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